MLB Preseason Predictions (NL)

Despite being statistically inferior to the American League, the NL is host the defending World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals.  Yes, the “best team” in baseball barely finished above .500, but because they happened to win 4 out of 5 games against the Detroit Tigers in the month of October, they are the kings of the hill.  Let’s see if they’ll go back.

NL East: NEW YORK METS – As I have said in previous posts, during the regular season a team with pitching issues can still get by as long as they have good defense and a good offense to carry them, and the Mets have just that.  The Phillies look to challenge the Mets having Howard, Utley and Rollins to challenge the soon-to-be dominant Mets threesome of Delgado, Wright, and Reyes, only the Mets one-up the Phils with a “finally” productive Carlos Beltran.  The Mets are in trouble in the starting pitching department with nearly every reliable starter plagued by injuries, but the bullpen that carried them last year will find a way to do so this season as well despite Billy Wagner’s inconsistency.  It’ll be a close race throughout, but that Mets offense is just too damn powerful to ignore.

NL Central: CHICAGO CUBS - After spending Yankee-like amounts of money this offseason to overload on everyone and anyone availible, the NL Central appears to be the Cubs for the taking.  Going back to offense carrying teams from April to September, the Cubs have lots of it.  The righty-friendly Wrigley Field will do numbers to power righties Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and a healthy Derek Lee.  As long as Michael Barrett can continue is random success, the Cubs offense is a great mix of power and speed that can overcome the debacle that is its starting staff (aside from Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill).  It’s hard to deny that despite expectations, lefties Lilly and Hill could be letting up 30+ home runs just as easily as they can strike out 180.   If the Cubbies can find one person to close, I’m positive they can steal the weak NL Central.

NL West: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – I know the trendy pick is the Dodgers.  And I know in class I said the Padres.  But man oh man does Arizona have the potential to run away with the only division in baseball that is truly “up in the air.”  Not only does Arizona have the reigning Cy Young winner, but I believe Randy Johnson will be rejuvinated after finally escaping the clutches of New York (not the team, but the media, atmosphere, and pressure).  That’s 2 potential dominant starters mixed with the reliable when healthy Livan Hernandez, a proven 4th starter in Doug Davis and a 5th spot reserved for a slew of young talent.  The offense may lack a true-power threat, but is spread so evenly mixed with high potential youngsters and great defense that as long as Arizona’s bullpen can hold leads they may be the most even team in baseball.

WILD CARD: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – When Jimmy Rollins said the Phils were the best team in the NL East, I disagreed.  If he said second best, I would have, and second best in the NL East is a lot better than second best in the other divisions.  This offense is tremendous with Howard and Utley leading the pack.  The defense is just as good with guys like Rollins and Rowand.  The starting staff has great potential as long as Brett Meyers and Cole Hamels have come into their own.  The bullpen is the only question mark, and even Tom “Blow the 2004 ALCS” Gordon has looked pretty good at times.

QUICK PICKS – NL MVP – Albert Pujols, NL Cy Young – Ben Sheets, NL ROY – Chris Young

MLB Preseason Predictions (AL)

Alright, you heard it here first.  Here are my predictions for the upcoming baseball season and my reasoning behind each pick.

AL East: NEW YORK YANKEES – I know the “in” thing to do every season is to pick the Sox or Blue Jays, who both have great teams respectively.  But as much as Boston’s starting rotation appears to be the most dominant in the league, experts will tell you that a bullpen and an inconsistent offense (that’s right) is what gets you through the regular season, much in the way your rotation takes you through the postseason.  Last season the Yankees led the AL in team OBP and finished third in Slugging and scoring the most runs in the league.  Even if question marks in the rotation and bullpen pop up, the Yankees are easily capable of winning the 10-7 games that scare the fans most, and should have enough offense to power them to the top of the standings for the 11th straight season.

AL Central: CLEVELAND INDIANS – the second best overall offense in the AL behind the Yankees last season suffered a nasty fate when star slugger Travis Hafner broke his bone in his right hand at the beginning of September effectively knocking him out during the playoff push.  Also Cleveland was without the eyesight of 2005 MVP candidate Jhonny Peralta and suffered major defensive issues.  But with a solid starting rotation, a killer offense led off by future 5-tool all start Grady Sizemore, a much improved defense, and a bullpen with three solid options to close the game, theres no reason the Tribe should have trouble overcoming the flukes that were the Chicago White Sox in 2005 and Detroit Tigers in 2006, respectively.

AL West: LA ANGELS of ANAHEIM – It’s very difficult to shrug off the Angels potential with the starting rotation they have.  Lackey, the most underrated pitcher in the AL, should dominate again and with the return of Bartolo Colon and the continuing success of youngsters Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana, the second best rotation in the AL last season (behind Detroit) will take the Angels far.  Though they are still yet to add that effective “Power” man to compliment Vladimir Guerrero, they still have a crop of up and comers who are prime to become superstars such as second baseman Howie Kendrick and catcher Mike Napoli.  With K-Rod in the closer’s role as usual, the Angels should easily regain their place atop the AL West.

WILD CARD – It’s very hard to see the Red Sox out of the postseason this year, especially with that payroll slowly creeping its way into Yankee-land (or already there if you add in Matsuzaka’s posting fee).  The rotation’s potential is too good to ignore and with Papelbon back in the closers role they wont have to worry about blowing late leads (at least not too much).  Though JD Drew and Julio Lugo wont add the power they need, the ability to get on base and speed on the base paths will prove to be an invaluable difference from the team that struggled last season.

Quick Picks: AL MVP will be Travis Hafner, CY Young will go to Johan Santana, and Rookie of the Year will go to Alex Gordon, who will become a George Brett clone at third base for the Kansas City Royals (unless of course the BBWAA goes against its precedent of Berror defeating Matsui in 2003 ROY voting and cuddles up to Matsuzaka, which would not surprise me)

Yanks Bullpen Success All On Middle Relief and Torre

Great closers come and go, but very few have remained constant.  The New York Yankees have been blessed with Mariano Rivera for over a decade, but not since the end of the dynasty days (1996-2001) has the bridge to “The Sandman” been the same.  Guys such have Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton have been brought back to reclaim there magic to no avail, and others have failed such as current Phillies closer Tom Gordon.  The Yankees had thought the set-up man problem had been solved when they acquired Kyle Farnsworth, who was coming off a season where he posted a 2.19 ERA with a solid strikeout rate of an excellent 11.2 k per nine innings.  What the Yankees got instead was a man with control issues that struggled to a 4.36 ERA despite regaining a good k per nine rate 10.2, which is comforting knowing that “The Farns” is still capable of getting a big strikeout here and there.  But what of the rest of the bullpen?

In getting rid of the pile of human garbage known as Randy Johnson the Yanks were able to acquire Luis Vizcaino.  Vizcaino posted a 3.59 ERA with Arizona and a 9.9 k per nine.  That’s two relievers ahead of Rivera capable of striking out batters, the most important trait a reliever can have (the less the ball is in play in the latter innings, the better).

This brings us to the 2 men heading on a collision course for disaster.  Joe Torre has made a habit of abusing the guys in the bullpen that he sees as reliable, one of whom is Ron Villone, who pitched 80 1/3 innings last season at the age of 37.  Though Villone has eclipsed that mark multiple times in his career, his stats from the beginning of the season to the period in which he was overworked greatly differed posting a 2.27 ERA in the first half but a 10.48 ERA after August 1st, of course there is a history of this, since 2004 his first half ERA differed his second half ERA by nearly 4 runs on average.  This probably should have been noted when the Yanks decided to re-sign him, seeing as though theres no more important a time in the Yankee world other than post-August.

The other “abused” reliever would be Scott Proctor, who despite the workload of an AL leading 102 1/3 innings still posted an ERA of 3.52 and struck out nearly 3 times as many batters as he walked.  Still, with all the problems Villone went through last season, Yankee fans are biting their nails feeling that its only a matter of time before Proctor suffers the same fate.

I know a forgot to mention lefty specialist Mike Myers, but frankly all he has to do is keep David Ortiz at bay, and if he succeeds 1/3 times, frankly i’d be pleased. 

The road to Rivera cuts through these guys, and its up to them as to whether the Yankees will succeed this season or not.  We know that Torre will abuse them if they have to, but my hope is that the starting staff could provide enough innings to keep them rested to their in top form when needed, and come the ninth inning, just let Mo Rivera do what he’s been doing for a decade of dominance.

Wang To Miss All Of April

But first, let me say:

“Hey Wang, this place looks kind of restricted so don’t tell em your Jewish!” – Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack.

Now that that’s out of the way, on to brass tax.  While running yesterday Yankee’s ace and obvious opening day starter Chien-Ming Wang injured his hamstring and will miss opening day and remain on the DL until the end of April at best. 

You don’t have to be a baseball expert to know that this is really bad news for the Yankees.  Though I have never been as high on Wang as many other baseball analysts only because he gets ground balls and doesn’t give up home runs and that’s it, it’s hard to deny that his sinker ball is one of the top 3 sinkers in baseball and has resulted in more outs and double plays than it has squeekers through the infield.  His ability to keep the earned runs low is invaluable on a team whose staff will likely get hurt on the long ball.  

As the ace Wang would have seen about 5 starts during the month of April, so now the Yankees will have to play it by ear.  This also ensures Kei Igawa’s spot in the rotation and will make an interesting race for the obvious whole in the fifth starter.  Due to Hughes inconsistency in Spring Training, the obvious choice will be to give the ball to Jeff Karstens.

Most of all, this creates a dire problem for the Yankees.  Because spring training is set so that starting pitchers will receive enough rest before the season starts, it was announced that Carl Pavano, yes, Iron Man himself, will be starting for the Yankee on opening day.  YIKES!  I also find this hilarious, because recently Quinnipiac Grad and co-worker of mine Glenn Giangrande suggested on YESNetwork.com that Carl Pavano being the Opening Day starter would be a great test to see if he’s overcome his injuries and is ready for the big time.  And that is probably the best way to look at this situation.  Like 2005 when Wang was called up, the Yankees have enough youngsters who will now have a shot to prove if they can step it up and become a formidable athlete on the major league scale. 

Igawa disappoints but doesn’t fail

Anytime you invest over $30 million dollars just to speak to a baseball player about signing them to a contract, expectations will remain high no matter how the deal is finally settled.  Such is the case for Japanese import and current Yankee pitcher Kei Igawa, whose spring has been up and down.

In 12 innings of work Igawa has posted a 1-0 record with a 3.00 ERA with a strikeout-walk ratio of 15:10.  Despite Igawa’s control struggles, and the constant banter from scouts saying that his stuff isn’t overwhelming enough to beat major league hitters, Igawa is still finding ways to strike hitters out, which can only mean that he’s doing something right, right?

The concensus says that Igawa would best be suited for the Yankees bullpen, being that the less hitters see of his stuff the better the chance of him being able to fool them, but as many pitchers who never had dominating stuff before him, Igawa can succeed as a starter if given the chance.  I’ll take a guy who walks and strikes out a lot of batters as opposed to someone who will just walk (see Jaret Wright).  Sure, Igawa’s control issues make him a prime candidate for the back of the rotation, but a number 4-5 starter that could strikeout 175 batters in a season is way too good to pass up.

Of course only time will tell if Igawa will make the rotation or not, certainly all the Yankee management is cheering him on, seeing as though they made such a large investment in him.  But as a Yankee fan I am more confident in “Dice-Kei” (that’s right, I said it) than any other Yankee back end rotation guy in the past few years.  Names such as Small, Wright, Loaiza, Brown, and even Pavano give me nightmares.  Hopefully Kei Igawa will help end them.

Pinstripe Alley

I posted on the blog called Pinstripe Alley because it is simple and like the other site based on all things Yankees.  The source isn’t as reliable as the newspaper website blogs but smaller blogs like this usually focus on news and stories from other baseball-related blogs around the web, and they usually are all found under one network of sites.  Unlike the Newsday Yankees blog Pinstripe Alley requires you to sign up for a membership to post but like most sites it is free.

Check out the web site here

In a recent post, the administrator posted an article about the possibility of Alex Rodriguez opting out of his contract at the end of this season to pursue free agency in 2008, with the most likely destination being the Chicago Cubs simply because the manager who raised him (Lou Pinella) is over there.  The writer seems pretty adamant about wanting to see Arod depart and bringing in some premier talent from other teams (as usual). 

My response to the blog is under “Arod” posted by Market 8 Dude

“Even though Arod was recently quoted as to his decision on whether staying with the Yanks or leaving is “up to the team and the fans”, thats just a sly way of saying that if we continue to hurt his feelings for not performings he’s going to go home, cry, and play for the Cubs.

As disappointing as the guy has been something tells me the second he leaves we will all regret it, especially if he succeeds with his new club as he did during his time in Seattle and Texas.  

As for all those possible mega-deals, most teams would be stupid to unload premier young talent, especially to dump payroll in a league where the amount you spend doesn’t lead to any type of penalty.  

When it comes down to it I think Arod is here to stay, and unless anyone can think of a better option for third (that’s realistic) I’d say we’re better off.”

Newsday Forum Post

At Newsday.com, there is a blog following the Yankees beat covering all stories having to do with the team.  The blog is often infrequent, but you can’t complain when at the other end is someone whose profession is to cover the Yankees specifically. 

Check out the blog here

In the most recent post, they mention whether or not the yankees fifth starter slot should go to import Kei Igawa, who has struggled during spring training or prospect Jeff Karstens, who has pitched well in both a short stint last season in the majors and throughout spring training.

Here is my response under “Brandon”

http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/blog/2007/03/blue_jays_lineup_2.html

“I really like Karstens and his aggresive nature. You don’t have to have overwhelming stuff if you keep pounding the strike zone. Remember, the best hitters only succeed 3/10 times, so if he keeps throwing stikes even he still can put together solid games. I understand Kei Igawa is a large investment but he’ll be better suited as middle relief (instead of busted arm Villone perhaps) seeing as though hes better off the less batters see him. Hopefully Hughes or Sanchez will blow through Triple A and pitch well in the big show.”

The Return of Iron Man

After more than a year since he last pitched in Yankee pinstripes, Carl Pavano made his first start in spring training against the Philadelphia Phillies today, impressing everyone by actually lasting more than six pitches without injury.  The final line for the day was:

2 IP   2 hits   2 walks   1 earned run   0 strikeouts

Not exactly amazing, but thats to be expected during the first week of spring training.  The fact that Pavano pitched 2 more innings this afternoon than he did for the Yankees in all of 2006 is very nice and all, and yet I’m still not satisfied. 

Carl Pavano is wasting this spot in the rotation when prime youngsters such as Philip Hughes and Humberto Sanchez have to wait in the wings when they can contribute equally if not better.  That’s why the news that Pavano could be dealt if proved healthy .  I wouldn’t mind seeing another prospect come the Yankees way, there’s nothing wrong with having an even more stacked farm system.

Till then, it will only be a few more weeks before the modern day Iron Man will have the chance to show his stuff.  #45 4 EVER!

Yanks Make Top 100 Prospects

Baseball America just released it Top 100 Prospects and like I had predicted before, the Yankees were prominently featured on the list, including the man I predicted, Philip Hughes was ranked the 4th best prospect in baseball, and 2nd-best pitcher (finishing behind the top prospect, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is 6 years his senior).

Hughes gained the ranking by dominating every level of play he has faced as well as having major league ready polish with plus stuff.  The others that followed included:

#27 OF – Jose Tabata
#57 SP – Humberto Sanchez
#75 SP – Joba Chamberlain
#100 SP – Dellin Bentances (hasn’t pitched outside High School)

These numbers are very impressive considering every prospect except for Sanchez is younger than me.  And after years of ridicule for having a barren farm system, the Yankees featuring 5 prospects on the top 100 list is extremely encouraging about the direction of this team.  People knock the Yankees for buying players, but if I recall correctly, 7 of the 9 members of the starting lineup of the 2003 AL Champion team were straight out of the system (Giambi at DH and Aaron Boone at 3b) being the only exceptions.  And considering that was the last Yankee team to make the World Series, raising all these top flight youngsters is very encouraging.

It should also be noted that the Top 100 prospect list usually turns the other cheek towards relief pitchers, which the Yankee system is very heavy in as well, including college standouts JB Cox and Kevin Whelan.

Who Is This Guy?

I love spring training.  Not just because it signifies that the season is less than a month away and the rosters are ready to be set, but because you get to see some of the young talent and prospects show their stuff against major league talent.  Now there are the Yankees top prospects to watch: Philip Hughes, Jose Tabata, Kevin Whelan.  But today in an exhibition game against the Devil Rays,  third-baseman Chris Basak hit the game-winning three-run homer.  So who is this guy anyway?

Basak had established himself as a regular in the New York Mets farm system, in their triple-a franchise the Norfolk Tides.  As an infielder, Basak provided solid on-base percentages (.344 and .345 in ‘05 and ‘06 repsectively) and was a stud in college (Batted .393 as a junior). 

If he had trouble making it to the Mets roster in 2005, then I couldn’t imagine him making the Yankees roster, because even I could’ve made the 2005 Mets roster (not to be confused with 2006).  But still, Yankees are 2-0 in preseason including solid performances from startes Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte.  Here’s to an undefeated preseason!!

(And regular season, and postseasn   )